Where will DLT-based finance and capital markets stand in 2035? At the 2nd Sparkassenkonferenz Digital Assets, our partner and managing director Marius Bauer, CFA, answered this question with three scenarios.
Cryptocurrencies suffer a lasting market crash. The underlying technology is not adopted at scale, and today's DLT projects remain niche applications.
DLT establishes itself at scale across a wide range of financial products. Value chains are reshaped and competition intensifies, but banks and asset managers keep the client interface.
DLT fundamentally disrupts financial market infrastructure. Banks and asset managers largely lose control of the client interface to new, native players.
In our view, scenario 2 is the most likely path. Its impact on a bank's P&L goes well beyond payments and securities services and extends to the deposit and lending business. We explain this in detail in our article How DLT is changing bank P&L.
In the subsequent panel with representatives from DekaBank, Deutsche WertpapierService Bank and Die Sparkasse Bremen, the discussion also converged on scenario 2. Four points stood out:
In an evolution scenario, the winners are not those who wait for certainty. They are the institutions that decide now where DLT changes their P&L, which infrastructure they will use and which capabilities they need to build. FinPlanet supports banks and asset managers in turning these questions into a concrete strategy and roadmap.
Many thanks to the DSGV, Sachwert Invest and DekaBank for organising and hosting the event, and to the panellists for an excellent discussion.
